It looks like I am back to begin blogging about the upcoming 2012 NFL Season, one that will hopefully surprise and satisfy many hungry football fans. With the conclusion of last week's 2012 NFL Draft, as well as the release of the 2012 NFL schedule prior to that, I believe this is the perfect time to begin (pointlessly) analyzing what has been done and (pointlessly) predicting what is to come in the world of football. I had to decide on whether to begin blogging about individual teams' drafts or their schedules. I ultimately settled on analyzing the schedules because I believe Draft Grade analyses should be pushed until at least one game in the selected players' careers has been played. That means I could grade the 2011 NFL Draft at this point, but I feel like we all could figure those grades out for ourselves if we really wanted to. What is really important, however, is to throw out (pointless) predictions of the 2012 NFL Season. This is great, because during and after the season everybody, including myself, can come back and laugh at my foresight and wish myself luck next time.
The way I have decided to do this is by each individual team. Last night, I gathered every team's schedule and organized them on a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. I then went through and marked a W (win) or a L (loss) for each game. Therefore, it is as if I predicted each individual game of the upcoming season so there is no imbalance of wins/losses. What I noticed first is, I definitely favored my Seattle Seahawks in many more games than I should have (I gave them 13 wins) and I definitely did not favor some teams as much as I should have (I gave the 49ers 7 wins). While I thought about redoing the process to leave out some of the bias, I thought to myself, 'What the hell. The NFL is unpredictable anyways.' So I will leave my game-by-game predictions as they are, and cross my fingers that I am at least 1% correct in the end.
I will follow my good friends Dillon Newport and Andy Mullet (blog found at http://www.nflinsideblog.com/) in analyzing the schedules of one division per post. I hope they do not mind this.
I will start with the AFC East. The AFC East matches up against the AFC South and the NFC West, two divisions that they have a good chance of notching some victories.
Buffalo Bills (8-8)
I have the Buffalo Bills finishing at 8-8 this season, two games better than their 2011 campaign. However, this qualifies them for third in the division instead of fourth (they lost the tiebreaker with Miami to finish fourth in the East last season). The Bills made the biggest splash in the free agency market this offseason by signing highly touted defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams. Williams, like Julius Peppers, will bring an immediate surge to a defense already filled with leaders such as Nick Barnett and Jairus Byrd. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a pretty sound signal caller and if Fred Jackson stays healthy, he could make another run for the top running back in the league. Stevie Johnson and David Nelson are two nice targets for Fitzpatrick on offense as well. The key match-ups for Buffalo this season will be in the divisional games. The Bills will have to beat the Patriots and Jets to have a chance at finishing in the top two of the division. They also can not risk losses to Miami if they want any chance at competing.
Wins: @ Jets, vs. Chiefs, vs. Browns, vs. Patriots, vs. Titans, vs. Dolphins, vs. Jaguars, vs. Rams
Losses: @ 49ers, @ Cardinals, @ Texans, @ Patriots, @ Colts, vs. Seahawks, @ Dolphins, vs. Jets
Miami Dolphins (4-12)
The Dolphins are truly a terrible team run by a terrible front office. The organization has not made good decisions and it seems to tear down the potentials of top players. Miami drafted Ryan Tannehill with their first round pick in this year's draft, and it's going to take a while before he has the opportunity to produce any real numbers. Unfortunately, Tannehill will likely be the starter Week 1, and the NFL will see the most raw quarterback to ever start an NFL game, as Tannehill is less prepared than Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder from last year's draft (none of them started Week 1). Maybe the Dolphins pull a few crazy wins out at home, like they seem to do every year, which is why I gave them four wins.
Wins: vs. Rams, vs. Titans, vs. Jaguars, vs. Bills
Losses: @ Texans, vs. Raiders, vs. Jets, @ Cardinals, @ Bengals, @ Jets, @ Colts, @ Bills, vs. Seahawks, vs. Patriots, @ 49ers, @ Patriots
New England Patriots (13-3)
Every year that Tom Brady is the starting quarterback in New England, it is impossible for me to ever predict less than 11 wins (I predicted 11 last year). Predicting just an above average year for the Patriots should be a Johnathan Edwards-esque sin in "Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God" (Sorry I've been reviewing United States History for five hours today). The Patriots bolstered their roster by actually moving up in the first round twice in the draft, selecting Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, two very talented defensive players who will fill in the few holes New England has had in recent years on defense. There are definitely some intriguing games on the Patriots' roster this season, most notably the Week 5 game hosting the Peyton Manning led Broncos and the Week 15 match-up hosting the 49ers.
Wins: @ Titans, vs. Cardinals, vs. Broncos, @ Seahawks, vs. Jets, @ Rams, vs. Bills, vs. Colts, @ Dolphins, vs. Texans, vs. 49ers, @ Jaguars, vs. Dolphins
Losses: @ Ravens, @ Bills, @ Jets
New York Jets (9-7)
When I counted up the wins and losses for the Jets in my predictions, I almost started over realizing I gave them a winning season. I have never been a fan of Rex Ryan and the Jets, but I guess my game-by-game predictions proved I at least respect them enough to give them a winning season this year (I guess that means this was a successful way in somewhat eliminating bias outside of the NFC West in my prediction). The Jets have a good roster, and they added a project in Quinton Coples in the first round of this year's draft (Thank goodness Seattle did not let Bruce Irvin fall to them). Tebowmania has already begun in New York/New Jersey and will continue on until the day the Jets ship him off to another team in the near, or far, future. The Jets' schedule is hard to analyze without knowing what role Tebow will be playing in the Jets offense. Not that it matters in the end, however, because the Jets somehow have found ways to win big games and small games big with Mark Sanchez at the helm. With that said, it's evident the Jets don't need a quarterback to win games, but a productive one would surely help.
Wins: @ Dolphins, vs. 49ers, vs. Colts, vs. Dolphins, vs. Patriots, vs. Cardinals, @ Jaguars, @ Titans, @ Bills
Losses: vs. Bills, @ Steelers, vs. Texans, @ Patriots, @ Seahawks, @ Rams, vs. Chargers
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